2017 Pre-Season Address
Introduction Come one, come all! It’s the writeup you’ve all been waiting for (maybe...probably…). It’s the schedule release/draft order announcement party! Congrats to everyone for scrounging up the pennies needed to pay dues. We had some buzzer beaters this year. I really thought this was the off-season I'd have to murder someone. But there's always next year! This is by far the largest writeup I have ever done. Like an extra large pizza, I would be shocked if anyone consumed it all in one sitting. Take your time, read it over the course of the next few weeks. This is our last pre-season post (aside from the brief keeper announcements) before our draft. The next writeup you see will be Week One Power Rankings. Below you will find the culmination of my off-season work, extensive charts and analysis for our upcoming draft and season, as well as a handcrafted schedule designed to maximize drama and entertainment in the league. We also have special announcement videos from Nate and Chantel, entering their first season together as an engaged couple. Buckle up. In less than a month the LoC Empire begins its war path to Glory Bowl VII and a new league champion. Important Dates * 8/23 Keeper Deadline (after this date if you have not submitted keepers you don’t get keepers) * 8/24 Keepers Announced * 8/27 LoC Draft - 8pm ET (That’s 8pm Rhode Island time, not 8pm California time, not 8pm London time) * 9/3 Week 1 Power Rankings Write-up * 9/7 Week 1 Kickoff 2017 Draft Please direct your attention to the view screen for a special draft order announcement video, courtesy of your 2016 Heart and Soul Bowl champion Sweet Dee (formerly known as Deez Sons of Bitchez): And with that, Papa's Posse is officially on the clock. 2017 Draft Order Draft Charts What does league history tell us about the draft positions? (these graphs are color coded on computers but not on mobile devices). Interesting that we have not had the same person draft first since the 2011/2012 season. A lot of different teams getting the opportunity to make a splash out of the one position. But how big of a splash have they made? Final standings by year sorted by draft order The first overall pick has been a death sentence since 2014, which does not bode well for Papa's Posse. Fifth is not kind, either, with only one top three finisher and the lowest average final standings position among top ten picks. If that is the case, this could be a tough draft for MVP. On the other hand, the second overall pick has never missed the playoffs. However, this is the only draft position that has yet to see a top three finisher. The 6-8 spots seem to be the place to draft, with five league-winning teams drafting in those positions. Point totals drafted in the first round This graph is incomplete because the Yahoo archives do not provide access to all player stats across seasons. However, with the information we have we can once again see the fifth spot has been unkind and the second spot has been prosperous. Note the inflated 2011 scoring, when QBs were dropping close to 100 per game. Last season there were some clear busts, dropping the averages, particularly at 7 and 9 (Gronk and Adrian Peterson). Positions taken in the first round by year Once QB deflation took place between 2011 and 2013, the age of the runningback began. However, 2016 saw a huge shift towards WR1s. This was also the first year a QB was not drafted in the 1st. I suspect we will see a similar split between WRs and RBs again this season, though I anticipate the number one spot to go to a runningback like in 2011-15. The fifth pick has always been a runningback. Will that trend continue? The Draft Pick Mega-Trade The second biggest story heading into the draft (keepers being the first) is the mega-trade between Paddock 9 and ma ma momma said. Paddock 9, right in the thick of the playoff hunt, gambled his future for immediate success, while ma ma momma said (out of playoff contention) started planning for 2017. Here is a recap of the only trade in 2016: Here is how things shaked up on the player side: Paddock 9 did not see significant improvement, while momma obtained a solid keeper option in Ajayi. Now the bill comes due. Paddock 9 will not have a draft pick between round 7 until round 11. If he had any keepers in those rounds, this would have worked to his advantage. They would have instead only cost him an 11, 12, or 13. However, none of the players on his roster are eligible for those rounds. Momma, meanwhile, gets two picks in rounds 8, 9, and 10. These will be interesting rounds to watch for those two teams. Keepers Corner Before we get to top questions and the schedule release, one final keeper section. This serves as the last reminder the Commish will give about keepers. NOTE: THERE IS NO WAY TO SELECT KEEPERS IN THE YAHOO FANTASY APP. IT MUST BE DONE ON YOUR COMPUTER OR THROUGH SAFARI ON YOUR PHONE. Important Rules # If you submit more than two keepers to me, whether on purpose or by accident, I will automatically approve the two players that cost you the highest draft picks regardless of position. # If you submit players that are ineligible, you will not be given the option to resubmit. # If you are questioning a players eligibility, I've got you covered (see below). # If you keep two players from the same round it costs you that round and your next pick, whether that is the following round or later in the same round. # You have the option to keep one, two, or zero players. How to Select Keepers On your computer: # Go the league homepage # Hover your mouse over the dropdown menu labeled "My Team." # Click on the 'Choose Keepers' option. # Boxes will appear next to all of your players. Check off the boxes for the players you wish to keep. # At the bottom of your roster, select "Set Keepers." # Yahoo allows you to select as many keepers as you want. We are only allowed two. Eligible Keepers I am feeling particularly generous today, so I have saved people an abundance of time by consolidating all the eligible keepers into two handy charts (separated alphabetically for the sake of space). I know, I am very kind. This should end ANY AND ALL QUESTIONS about who you can keep and what they will cost you. You will notice some players will cost 2nd round picks. This does not mean 2nd round picks are eligible. It just means a 3rd round pick is eligible and it costs you a 2nd. I love Jamaal Charles and Eddie Lacy costing a second. Love it. Six Questions Heading into the 2017 season 6. What Do We Do About Gronk? And more generally, what is the deal with Tight Ends? A few years ago it looked like the NFL offenses were slowly shifting to a schemes that regularly utilized two tight-ends as receivers first, blockers second. But now it seems like we’re back to there being five good tight ends in the whole league, and then a bunch of average guys. And the five that are good are really, really good. How important is the tight end in the LoC and who is going to crack the code and draft the right TE at the right time? More importantly, how high does Gronk go this year? If he stays healthy for a full season, which he hasn’t done in half a decade, he is TE1, end of story. Is that worth the risk of a 1st, 2nd, or even 3rd round pick? I would bet that despite the risk, he goes in the top 15. Let’s see if I’m right or if I Matt Jinxed Gronk’s draft position. 5. So is Chris Good or Bad…? Look, everyone not named Shotti has a couple of really bad seasons. I had five wins in 2013 and 2014...combined. Momma has a trophy but has also finished in last place twice. Don’t get Nate started about the Even Year Curse. Pat’s team basically zombie-walked through every season that he had a girlfriend. Zach had a big time Glory Bowl hangover in 2015. But all of those teams have pulled themselves up from the muck and moved on. And now we are at that crossroads yet again, this time with Pain Train. This team finished 2nd in 2013 and hand looked strong heading into the playoffs in 2014. People forget. But it has been a LOOOONG time since this unit has been relevant. 2013 might as well have been another life ago. So what’s the deal with Chris? Is Pain Train good...or bad? 2017 will be the defining season for this franchise. 4. Veteran Runningbacks...What's up with thaaat? (Seinfeld voice) Lynch plays for the Raiders. Peterson plays for the Saints. Lacy plays for the Seahawks. Charles plays for the Broncos. Blount plays for the Eagles. Veterans everywhere changed uniforms this off-season. Who is willing to take a risk on a guy like Lynch, coming back out of retirement, or Peterson, coming off of an ACL tear? Better yet, who is willing to get laughed at for drafting Jamaal Charles or Eddie Lacy? We all saw what happened with DeMarco Murray when he changed jerseys. Who will be getting Beast Mode and who will be getting Least Mode? And with Elliot exploding in his rookie season, what rookies are poised to be the next EZ (minus the domestic abuse)? 3. How Important is the L-Factor? Most winning teams have an X-Factor. But heading into 2017, Paddock 9 and Momma have L-Factors, and it scares me.' For P9, the L stands for losing. For momma, the L stands for London. ' Paddock 9 has had a pretty rough year. Starting with She Who Will Not Be Named, Patrick has taken L after L all winter, spring, and summer long. Just when you thought it was getting better, Super Bowl 51. Meets a nice girl, turns out she’s a psycho. Thinks “Whoever Dies First” Memorial Bowl is a decent name, gets trounced in the first round. So, will the losses keep coming? How many? Will he lose every game? No, he won’t. Or will he? We all know the laws of nature. What goes up, must come down. And like a wheel, what is at the bottom will eventually rotate to the top. Is Pat destined to break this spell of L’s in the league and rise to supremacy? Meanwhile, Ma ma momma said is spending literally the entire football season in London. He is moving there the day before the draft and will be there for six months. The effects of this move are hard to tabulate, though we all remember his trip to Australia in 2015 that cost him Glory Bowl 5 to The Shotti Bunch. Having never won while abroad, what kind of season can we expect from momma? And will he even be able to draft, with a 1am London time draft start? Is it coincidence that these two teams, destined to be tied to the letter L, both were part of the megatrade? 2. Will Keepers Sway the Balance of Power? Starting fresh every season, bad teams get a clean start while champions have to start from scratch. But do keepers favor the champs? Think of it this way: a bad team has at least one great player, maybe two. They hit on a fabulous late rounder or they picked up a decent free agent. This season, they get to build upon those two solid players. Now they get two pro-bowlers, plus a top-four pick in the first round. Could this be what teams like Chris and Papa need to go from worst to first? Or does it just help teams like Shotti and Zach fortify their strongholds on the all-time wins list? 1. Can Shotti Be Stopped? Shotti has been in the league since 2012. In Five years, he has won three championships and made it to the semifinals each season. He has played in more Glory Bowls than Patrick has played playoff games. He has long been considered the class of the league, much to the chagrin of 9 other managers. But the book has been out on the Bunch for a while now. His bread and butter is the run game, something that other team’s seldom master in a pass-whacky league. So the biggest question of the season is (once again) whether or not The Shotti Bunch can be taken down. 2017 Schedule Announcement Maybe I am the only one who gets excited about the schedule every season, but if you are like me than this is the section for you! Making the schedule is the single hardest thing I do every year. I'm not just trying to fit everything in, I'm trying to create drama, tell stories, and make it the most fun for everyone. I even created a way to measure the fairness of the schedule, which I call "Total WBT." Little industry speak. WBT stands for "Weeks between Twos." Those are the four teams we play twice each year. I have a formula, it's all very fancy. I make sure our WBT is a certain number so that we don't repeatidly face our Two's close together, which could lead to one team (perhaps suffering a big injury) going down twice to an inferior roster. Did I lose everyone? That's why I'm the commish. I make schedules and I know things. Nate's Choice As reward for winning the 2016 Survivor Challenge, Nate was given the chance to select his first three opponents for 2017. He also got to choose how many times the matchup grid was randomized to produce which four teams everyone faced twice. He chose five. Not sure why. Maybe for the number of wins Zach is going to have this season? I randomized the matchups five times and got us this grid: As always, randomization was kind to some and cruel to others. TSB and GBM, who lead the league in regular season wins over the last two years (both 18-8) combine to face 10 non-playoff teams out of their 16 face-twice matchups. From this, Nate chose which three teams he would face in the first three weeks. And now here's RIPDab manager Nate the Great with the call: So there you have it. Nate decided between 1,716 possible combinations. And he decided: (Hmm Emoji) The 2017 LoC Schedule Because of Nate's Choice, crafting the rest of the schedule was actually quite difficult. But after long last, here it is (click to enhance): By the time you read this the schedule will already be imported into the yahoo page for your viewing pleasure. Week One Matchups This year we do not have many themed weeks. Nate's Choice saw to that. But I wanted to have some sort of good storyline to kick things off in week one. For that, I created this nifty chart: Opening Day Standings I know what stands out to me. One Opening Day win for momma! I actually thought this was zero for a long time but realized today that I miscalculated. The fact remains, historically poor opening day performance for momma. I created the matchups based on this chart. Papa and Peeled, who sit atop the standings with their four wins and two-game win streaks, will face off for first place and the longest opening day win streak in LoC history. GBM and Sweet Dee, each riding one game win streaks, will face off to see who can keep the magic alive. The Shotti Bunch and Paddock 9, both with two Opening Day wins and both on Opening Day losing streaks, go toe-to-toe. MVP and momma, each on two game losing streaks, will fight to stay out of last place in the standings. And finally, by choice, RIP will face JarJar Stinks, who has never lost on opening day. Team Records By Month RIP and TSB are our two hottest performers in September, each boasting an above .600 average. In October, Papa's Posse, Sweet Dee, and JarJar show significant decline in their averages. October is the month that perennial powerhouses dominate, with MVP, MMMS, and TSB all over .650 for the month. MVP is the clear MVP of October, with an insane 0.810 W/L average. In crunch time, RIP once again kicks things into gear. Dab is tied for the best record in November with Pain Train. Papa's Posse, helped by his five game win streak to end 2011, is close behind at 0.556 (tied with MVP). JJS, with only two seasons under their belt, comes in at a whopping 0.700 in November, and thus has the best average (albeit with only ten games). Sweet Dee, MMMS, and P9 have underperformed in this month. Hot Start Below is a chart showing who has the toughest opening to the season. Despite having the easiest schedule in the league, TSB opens with the fourth toughest stretch thanks in part to Nate's double header. Pain Train and MMMS are given ample opportunity to get the new season off on the right foot with the two easiest opening schedules. Playoff Push Who finishes the season with the toughest three week stretch? MMMS, who has the easiest start to the season, will finish with the toughest three week stretch. On the other hand, P9's tough start is rewarded with the second easiest finish. List of Glory Bowl Rematches This season we will have a Glory Bowl rematch in 8 of the 13 weeks, with a record 11 rematches in total. List of 2016 Post-Season Rematches Chances for revenge abound in our schedule this season. Six of our playoff rematches are double-headers, with at least one rematch in 10 of the first 11 weeks. Notes For Each Team's Schedule B4/T6 = (Bottom four teams faced/top six teams faced) PT Streak = Longest stretch vs. 2016 playoff teams NPT Streak = Longest stretch vs. 2016 non-playoff teams * The Shotti Bunch - Shotti will run the Gauntlet of the Gods beginning week 11, facing the 2011, 2012, and 2014 champions in that order. Prior to that they will have their Glory Bowl 6 rematch with JarJar and the showdown with reigning regular season champ Garoppoblow Me. He has the league's longest stretch against non-playoff teams with five (weeks 4-8). * Combined Opponent Record: 76-93 (10th) * B4/T6 Teams: 6-7 (T-6th) * PT Streak: 3 (T-7th) * NPT Streak: 5 (1st) * JarJar Stinks! - Jar Jar’s schedule is front loaded with power, as their opening six opponents have a combined record of 41-37 (0.526). Compare that to their final seven, which combine for 44-47 (0.484). They face Paddock 9 twice for the third time in three seasons. * Combined Opponent Record: 85-84 (6th) * B4/T6 Teams: 6-7 (T-6th) * PT Streak: 3 (T-7th) * NPT Streak: 3 (T-2nd) * RIPDab - Other than finishing the season against Sweet Dee, RIP has several noteworthy weeks. Front and center is the back to back Shotti Bunch in weeks 2 and 3, bookended by 2016’s second-place finisher and it’s regular season champ. This will be the first time teams face each other in consecutive weeks. If RIP makes it out of September .500 or better, they are the real deal. RIP unquestionably has the toughest 2017 schedule. The teams he faces twice? The 1st, 2nd, and 4th place teams, and his future wife. * Combined Opponent Record: 89-80 (3rd) * B4/T6 Teams: 5-8 (5th) * PT Streak: 4 (T-3rd) * NPT Streak: 2 (T-6th) * Garoppoblow Me - After starting the season against two non-playoff teams, GBM will play 7 of their next 9 against playoff teams, with one of the two NPT matchups being against perennial semi-finalist ma ma momma said. * Combined Opponent Record: 77-92 (9th) * B4/T6 Teams: 6-7 (T-6th) * PT Streak: 4 (T-3rd) * NPT Streak: 2 (T-6th) * Paddock 9 - Possibly the 2nd toughest schedule, P9 will face notorious thorn in his side JJS twice in the first six weeks as well as Dee in both week 2 and 5. November’s stretch of RIP, GBM, and MVP will be a true test. Pass, and weeks 12 and 13 should be a breeze against back to back 5-8 teams. As always, circle the week 8 matchup with MMMS because that is Halloween week and it is when P9 is at his most vulnerable point. * Combined Opponent Record: 82-87 (T-7th) * B4/T6 Teams: 6-7 (T-6th) * PT Streak: 3 (T-7th) * NPT Streak: 2 (T-6th) * MVP - MVP has the honor of taking on MMMS in the opener, the weakest Opening Day team and last year's 10th place finisher. But on the tail end, they have to face TSB in week 13 for the second straight year. Unlike last season, MVP’s schedule does not appear to have any daunting four-week stretches. Probably the most balanced schedule on the docket in 2017. * Combined Opponent Record: 82-87 (T-7th) * B4/T6 Teams: 6-7 (T-6th) * PT Streak: 3 (T-7th) * NPT Streak: 3 (T-2nd) * Sweet Dee - Tough draw getting GBM opening week, but both teams have a history of showing up to their openers and this should be a definitive showdown to remember. Having JJS, P9 and PE as three of her face-twice teams is fitting, considering that for most of the team’s history they have finished close to those three in the standings. * Combined Opponent Record: 86-83 (T-4th) * B4/T6 Teams: 4-9 (T-1st) * PT Streak: 4 (T-3rd) * NPT Streak: 2 (T-6th) * Pain Train WOO WOO - After a lackluster 5-win performance in 2016, Pain Train will have a chance to get off on the right foot in 2017. They start the year against three non-playoff teams. Hopefully they capitalize, as they then face six straight playoff teams (the longest such stretch on the league) and only see one non-playoff team in the final ten weeks. Of course, it is worth noting that the last time this team went by the name Pain Train WOO WOO they started 0-3 then went on an unrivaled 9-game regular season win-streak. * Combined Opponent Record: 91-78 (2nd) * B4/T6 Teams: 4-9 (T-1st) * PT Streak: 6 (1st) * NPT Streak: 3 (T-2nd) * Papa’s Posse - Not a lot of hype to be had for the DiGennaro Bowl this year, as the father/son duo only face off once and it is in week 2. There will be some buildup for the dad v dad showdown between Papa and Burns as that doesn’t happen until the season’s final week. Papa was able to take down Shotti in week one last season and will look to keep the magic alive when they face again in week seven. Papa will have himself a mini-Gauntlet of the Gods in week 9-11 as he faces the 2012, 2014, and 2016 champions back-to-back-to-back. * Combined Opponent Record: 86-83 (T-4th) * B4/T6 Teams: 4-9 (T-1st) * PT Streak: 4 (T-3rd) * NPT Streak: 2 (T-6th) * Ma ma momma said - Very tough spread for momma as he tries to redeem himself while playing the entire season in London. His schedule has no weaknesses, with a gruelling five-game stretch between weeks 4 and 8 (2nd, 6th, 1st, 4th, 5th). If he is still fighting for a playoff spot in the final two weeks, he will have to earn his stripes against TSB and GBM, teams he will have the displeasure of facing twice. * Combined Opponent Record: 93-76 (1st) * B4/T6 Teams: 4-9 (T-1st) * PT Streak: 5 (2nd) * NPT Streak: 2 (T-6th) New Website Pages I have added some pages this off-season. Most fun, for me, is the list of post-season droughts. Sad that some teams in this league still haven't won a playoff game in close to a decade. * 2014 Regular Season Standings * 2015 Regular Season Standings * 2016 Regular Season Standings * All-Time Opening Day Standings * Best Win Percentage (2013-16) * Best Win Percentage (2014-16) * Best Win Percentage (2015-16) * Bye Week Points Scored * List of Glory Bowl Champions * List of LoC Franchise Post-Season Droughts I am working on importing all the matchup results from last season. So far I only have weeks one and two. * 2016 Week One Matchups * 2016 Week Two Matchups Hopefully I get around to the rest before the season starts, in case anyone wants to look back on their performances last season. Out of Commission I've been fielding questions regularly about the upcoming season, but I will be out of commish-ion from the 11th to the 21st. If you have a burning question, I emplore you to visit the Site Index where a quick hunt through recent posts will no doubt find you the answer you seek. Otherwise, I will be back in time to answer any last minute keeper problems and scoring issues. By the way, scoring is not changing at all this season. It will be the same as 2016. Conclusion I have been looking forward to this pretty much since last season ended. I am almost to the point where I care more about fantasy starting than I do about actual football. In 2017, the mission is clear. The Shotti Bunch must be stopped. Not only does he threaten to three-peat, but in doing so he would tear down the parity of this league and thrust us into a dark age the likes of which we have never seen. Shotti owning four of our seven trophies cannot be allowed. Who is going to step the fuck up and knock him from his place atop the Iron Throne? Let the games begin (in a few weeks).